Aparna Soni, PhD

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) affects 16 million people in the United States and is the sixth leading cause of death nationwide. Smoking cessation can prevent new COPD diagnoses and improve lung function in existing COPD patients. However, we currently know little about the direct impact of states’ policy efforts to curb cigarette smoking on COPD outcomes. This project will fill that gap by evaluating the impact of state tobacco control policies—including cigarette taxes, indoor smoking bans, e-cigarette taxes, and minimum age for sale—on COPD prevalence, hospital use, and deaths in the United States. We will also conduct subgroup analyses for key vulnerable populations to assess whether these policies reduce health disparities in COPD outcomes. Our findings will inform policy decisions regarding tobacco control by estimating COPD-related cost savings from optimal combinations of tobacco control policies.

Update: During the first year of the award, we used national survey data to complete analyses examining how state tobacco control policies affect COPD. We did not find immediate changes in COPD rates after policies were implemented, which is expected because COPD develops slowly over time. We found evidence, however, that cigarette tax increases are associated with meaningful reductions in COPD several years later. A $1 increase in cigarette taxes was associated with a three to four percent decrease in COPD prevalence about four to 10 years after the policy change. We also assembled and cleaned nationwide data on COPD-related hospital use and mortality. Our findings to date suggest that cigarette taxes can contribute to reductions in COPD over time, providing important evidence about the potential population health benefits of tobacco control policies and informing policymakers considering these approaches.